Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories
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Tropical Storm IGOR Public Advisory Number 5A
Issued at 200 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010
000 WTNT31 KNHC 091734 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 200 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010 ...IGOR MOVING ERRATICALLY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 25.4W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO... FOGO...AND BRAVA THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.4 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM... MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
Tropical Storm IGOR Forecast/Advisory Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2010
000 WTNT21 KNHC 091430 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO... FOGO...AND BRAVA THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 24.8W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 45SE 15SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 24.8W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 24.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.0N 26.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.8N 29.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.4N 32.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.7N 35.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.3N 40.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 18.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 24.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
Tropical Storm IGOR Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010
000 WTNT41 KNHC 091431 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1100 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010 DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGOR AROUND 1030 UTC...AND HAS EXPANDED SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR ...AS SHOWN BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. ALTHOUGH AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0000 UTC ONLY SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT...THE WINDS ARE ASSUMED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER NOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THEREFORE...IGOR WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...COMBINED WITH WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS BRING IGOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND SHOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. IGOR HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE 6-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/5. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NOW THAT IGOR APPEARS TO HAVE ABSORBED THE WEAK LOW THAT HAD BEEN IN ITS VICINITY...A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR NEARING A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH IN THE SHORT-TERM DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 14.7N 24.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 15.0N 26.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 15.8N 29.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 16.4N 32.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 16.7N 35.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.3N 40.4W 70 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.5N 44.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 48.5W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
Tropical Storm IGOR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2010
000
FONT11 KNHC 091430
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 33 21 11 7 4 3 3
TROPICAL STORM 64 72 68 52 36 26 29
HURRICANE 2 6 19 41 59 71 67
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 5 16 30 37 36 34
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 8 13 20 17
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 3 7 12 13
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 2 3 2
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 85KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
Tropical Storm IGOR Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2010 14:31:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2010 15:07:28 GMT
Tropical Storm IGOR 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2010 14:30:39 GMT
Tropical Storm IGOR Best Track Information (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2010 14:30:23 GMT
Tropical Storm IGOR Best Track Information (.kmz)
GIS Data last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2010 14:30:23 GMT
Tropical Storm IGOR Forecast Information (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2010 14:30:23 GMT
Tropical Storm IGOR Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2010 15:09:22 GMT
Tropical Storm IGOR Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2010 15:09:19 GMT
Tropical Depression HERMINE Public Advisory Number 15
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 9 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 09 Sep 2010 17:44:58 GMT
East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091736
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 9 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
